ADAM SMITH ON THE PROCESS OF CIVILIZATION AND THE ROLE OF COUNTERFACTUAL REASONING
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ABSTRACT
This paper examines Adam Smith’s use of counterfactual reasoning in his analysis of the “process of civilization” and its implications for modern economics. Smith, influenced by Isaac Newton, Robert Simson, Francis Hutcheson, and David Hume, employed counterfactual reasoning to critique the Mercantile System by comparing actual economic developments with the “natural course of events.” His physiocratic bias limited his engagement with emerging industrial advancements, yet his methodological contributions remain significant. Smith’s focus on “what if?” questions in policy discussions continues to shape modern economic thought, despite some limitations in fully realizing his theoretical framework.
ADAM SMITH SOBRE EL PROCESO DE CIVILIZACIÓN Y EL PAPEL DEL RAZONAMIENTO CONTRAFACTUAL
RESUMEN
Este artículo examina el uso que hace Adam Smith del razonamiento contrafactual en su análisis del “proceso de civilización” y sus implicaciones para la economía moderna. Smith, influenciado por Isaac Newton, Robert Simson, Francis Hutcheson y David Hume, utilizó el razonamiento contrafactual para criticar el Sistema Mercantil comparando los desarrollos económicos reales con el “curso natural de los hechos.” Su sesgo fisiocrático limitó su escrutinio de los emergentes progresos industriales; sin embargo, sus contribuciones metodológicas continúan siendo significativas. El enfoque condicional de Smith sobre cuestiones como “¿qué sucedería si?” en las discusiones de política continúa modelando el pensamiento económico moderno, a pesar de algunas limitaciones para identificar su marco teórico.
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