THE NEXUS BETWEEN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND DOMESTIC PRIVATE CAPITAL ACCUMULATION REVALUED: A CROSS-COUNTRY ASSESSMENT FOR 32 EMERGING MARKETS
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Resumen
ABSTRACT
This study examines the impact of greenfield Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on domestic private investment in 32 emerging economies from 1995 to 2021. Using conventional panel data methods —Ordinary Least Squares, and Fixed/Random effects models—, initial results suggest that FDI crowds in domestic investment. However, when addressing endogeneity and cross-sectional dependence through difference and system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimators and augmented with Common Correlated Effects (CCE), FDI becomes statistically insignificant. Thus, the apparent positive effect disappears when robust methods are used, thereby highlighting that the FDI-investment nexus is highly sensitive to econometric methodology, particularly those that address endogeneity and cross-country interdependence.
REVISANDO LA RELACIÓN ENTRE LA INVERSIÓN EXTRANJERA DIRECTA Y LA ACUMULACIÓN NACIONAL DE CAPITAL PRIVADO: UN ANÁLISIS TRANSVERSAL PARA 32 ECONOMÍAS EMERGENTES
RESUMEN
Este estudio examina el impacto de la inversión extranjera directa (IED) en proyectos greenfield sobre la inversión privada nacional en 32 economías emergentes durante el periodo 1995-2021. Los estimadores tradicionales de datos de panel (mínimos cuadrados ordinarios, efectos fijos y efectos aleatorios) sugieren inicialmente una relación positiva y estadísticamente significativa entre la IED y la inversión nacional. No obstante, al corregir la endogeneidad y la dependencia transversal mediante estimadores del método generalizado de momentos (GMM en diferencias y en sistema) y al incorporar estimadores de efectos correlacionados comunes (CCE), el coeficiente de la ied pierde toda significatividad estadística. En consecuencia, el aparente efecto estimulante de la inversión extranjera directa sobre la inversión privada nacional desaparece por completo cuando se emplean técnicas econométricas más robustas. Este resultado pone de manifiesto que la relación entre IED e inversión nacional es extremadamente sensible a la especificación econométrica, particularmente a aquellos métodos que controlan adecuadamente la endogeneidad y la interdependencia entre países.
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