DO HOUSE PRICES EFFECTIVELY HEDGE INFLATION IN G20 COUNTRIES?
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Resumen
ABSTRACT
We examine the effectiveness of housing ownership as a hedge against inflation across G20 countries using the NARDL model. The results indicate that housing assets do not serve as effective inflation-hedging instruments, with South Korea being the sole exception for long-term purposes. While some countries demonstrate a positive association between CPI and house prices in the short term, the magnitude remains below one percent, rendering homeownership an ineffective inflation-hedging strategy in most cases. Additional analyses of major events and political changes indicate that COVID-19 and the democratization index are associated with negative effects on housing prices in certain countries. Overall, these findings imply that residential real estate should not be considered a reliable instrument for protecting household wealth against inflation.
¿LOS PRECIOS DE LA VIVIENDA PROTEGEN EFICAZMENTE CONTRA LA INFLACIÓN EN LOS PAÍSES DEL G20?
RESUMEN
Analizamos la eficacia de la propiedad de la vivienda como cobertura contra la inflación en los países del G20 utilizando el modelo NARDL. Los resultados indican que los activos inmobiliarios no sirven como instrumentos eficaces de cobertura contra la inflación, con Corea del Sur como única excepción a largo plazo. Si bien algunos países muestran una asociación positiva entre el IPC y el precio de la vivienda a corto plazo, la magnitud sigue siendo inferior al uno por ciento, lo que hace que la propiedad de la vivienda sea una estrategia ineficaz de cobertura contra la inflación en la mayoría de los casos. Análisis adicionales de acontecimientos importantes y cambios políticos indican que la COVID-19 y el índice de democratización están asociados con efectos negativos en los precios de la vivienda en determinados países. En general, los resultados sugieren que los bienes inmuebles residenciales no deben considerarse un instrumento fiable para proteger el patrimonio de los hogares contra la inflación.
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