Preliminary proposal of an econometric model for updating rates in profitable highway

Abstract

THE OBTAINING A RATE MODEL INVOLVES SEVERALS PARTICULAR CONCEPTS PARTICULAR. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, UNQUESTIONABLE FACTORS INTERVENE SUCH AS: TYPE OF FINANCING, ORIGIN OF THE RESOURCES, DURATION THE GRANT, AMOUNT OF THE ORIGINAL INVESTMENT, INVESTMENT RISKS, POLITICAL RISKS, CONSTRUCTION RISKS, RISKS INCORRENCY PARITIES MORE OTHERS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE BEHAVIOR OF A TOLL HIGH WAYS PRESENTS A MEANINGFUL COMPLEXITY, ASSOCIATED WITH THE VARIABILITY OF USER'S DEMAND. CONSEQUENTLY, HERE IS NO DIRECT FORM OF PREDICTING ITS BEHAVIOR. UP DATING TARIFF BASE ON THE MOST REPRESENTATIVE VARIABLES AND WHETHER THEY WILL INFLUENCE THEIR AND OBTAINMENT AND BY CONSEQUENCE WILL BE APPLIED IN THE MEXICAN HIGWAYS, IT IS A GREAT CHALLENGE FOR THE ADMINISTRATION. UP TO DATE, THE INTERVENE GOVERNMENT IS TO UP DATE THE TOLL, TAKING AS REFERENCE, STATISTICAL INFORMATION SUCH AS: (1) TARIFF OF THE PREVIOUS YEAR, (2) FINANCIAL COSTS AND MAIN TENANCE COSTS HAVE SERVED AS A BASIS TO PROTECT AND PRESERVE THE QUALITY OF THE CONSTRUCTION OF HIGH WAYS AND (3) ECONOMIC PARAMETERS RELATED TO THE ELASTICITIES: (A) PERSONS IN COME AND (B) SERVICE PRICE. IN THIS DOCUMENT THE AFORE MENTIONED VARIABLES ARE DISCUSSED TO FOR MULATE A PROPOSAL OF ECONOMETRICAL MODEL THUS ARE INTENDED TO UP DATE TOLL IN MEXICAN HIGH WAYS WHICH HAVE THEIR MATURITY.