Development and Calibration of a Model for the Determination of Hurricane Wind Speed Field at the Peninsula of Yucatan

Abstract

IN THIS WORK A MODEL TO CALCULATE THE WIND SPEED FIELD PRODUCED BY HURRICANES THAT HIT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS DEVELOPED. THE MODEL VARIABLES ARE CALCULATED USING EQUATIONS RECENTLY DEVELOPED, THAT INCLUDE NEW ADVANCES IN METEOROLOGY. THE STEPS IN THE MODEL ARE DESCRIBED AND IMPLEMENTED IN A COMPUTER PROGRAM TO SYSTEMATIZE AND FACILITATE THE USE OF THIS MODEL. THE MODEL AND THE PROGRAM ARE CALIBRATED USING TWO DATA BASES; THE FIRST ONE INCLUDES TRAJECTORIES AND MAXIMUM WIND VELOCITIES OF HURRICANES; THE SECOND ONE INCLUDES RECORDS OF WIND VELOCITIES OBTAINED FROM THE AUTOMATIC METEOROLOGY STATIONS OF THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGY SERVICE. THE HURRICANE WIND VELOCITY FIELD IS CALCULATED USING THE MODEL AND INFORMATION OF THE FIRST DATA BASE. THE MODEL RESULTS ARE COMPARED WITH FIELD DATA FROM THE SECOND DATA BASE. THE MODEL IS CALIBRATED ADJUSTING THE HOLLAND'S PRESSURE RADIAL PROFILE PARAMETER B; THIS IS CARRIED OUT FOR THREE HURRICANE RECORDS: ISIDORE, EMILY AND WILMA. IT IS CONCLUDED THAT A VALUE OF B OF 1.3 ADJUSTS GLOBALLY THE THREE HURRICANE RECORDS AND THAT THE DEVELOPED MODEL IS CAPABLE OF REPRODUCING SATISFACTORILY THE WIND VELOCITY RECORDS.