Determinants of Electoral Turnout on the Southern Border of Mexico

Abstract

In this article the determining factors of electoral turnout in states of the southern border of Mexico are analyzed. It tests the effect of variables suggested by literature on voting rates in local elections for the renovation of town halls in the years 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, in the Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo and Tabasco, by means of the estimation of Probit-type fractional response regression models. The results show negative effects on the margin of victory, the number of candidates, education, and in migration, while the margin of advantage of the second place and the rural ambit had positive effects. Finally, the level of marginalization presented an inverted U-shaped effect.