Model of electoral prediction: the 2015 municipal election at León de los Aldama, Guanajuato

Abstract

The article analyzes the electoral changes in León, Guanajuato, based on how it was setting the displacement of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) by the National Action Party (PAN) in this council in 1988, until the change of correlation forces in 2012, which gives guidelines to analyze the scenarios that could characterize the upcoming elections this year. With this aim the authors proposed a statistical model for the study: the Dirichlet regression model, which allows to consider the nature of electoral data.