CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO E INFLACIÓN EN MÉXICO, 1993-2018: ¿UNA RELACIÓN LINEAL O NO LINEAL?
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Abstract
El objetivo del artículo es analizar si la relación entre la inflación y el crecimiento económico en México durante 1993-2018 fue lineal o no; a tal efecto, elaboramos un modelo dinámico de rezagos distribuidos no lineales. La hipótesis nula es que esa relación es lineal y la hipótesis alternativa acepta que no es lineal. Si la evidencia empírica documenta una relación lineal, la hipótesis nula implicaría que: 1) la inflación es un fenómeno puramente monetario a la Friedman (1968); 2) la estabilidad de precios alcanzada mediante la política monetaria del nuevo consenso macroeconómico es condición necesaria y suficiente para la aceleración del crecimiento y la superación del prolongado estancamiento de la economía mexicana, y 3) el dinero es neutral. Por el contrario, si los datos muestran una relación no lineal, se rechazarían la hipótesis nula y las implicaciones antes enunciadas.
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INFLATION IN MEXICO, 1993-2018: A LINEAR OR NON-LINEAR RELATIONSHIP?
ABSTRACT
The paper is aimed at assessing whether the relationship between Mexico’s economic growth and inflation has been linear or non-linear over the period 1993-2018. A non-linear dynamic autorregresive distributive lag model is elaborated to test both the null hypothesis of a linear relationship between the involved variables and the alternative hypothesis of a non-linear relationship. An empirical support for the the null hypothesis would imply that: 1) inflation is purely a monetary phenomenon (Friedman, 1968); 2) price stability, as achieved by means of the monetary policy framework of the new macroeconomic consensus, is both a necessary and sufficient condition for output growth acceleration and for overcoming the protracted stagnation of the Mexican economy, and 3) money is neutral. By contrast, if the empirical evidence confirms a non-linear relationship, both the null hypothesis and its ensuing implications would be rejected.Article Details
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