REAL EXCHANGE RATE AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE: THEORY AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE
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Abstract
This paper analyses the influence of the real exchange rate (RER) on the productive structure. A contribution of this article is to systematize and advance in the identification of the new transmission mechanisms through which the RER affects the productive structure. We show how these effects can be incorporated into the balance of payments constrained growth model. On the empirical level, the article assesses the association between the RER and structural change. A series of regressions was performed in a panel setting for various countries, using aggregated and sectorial databases. The estimates using the aggregated database suggest that a competitive RER favours manufacturing. Regressions also indicate that a competitive RER is associated with a more diversified and complex productive structure. In turn, the estimates using a sectoral database point out that a competitive RER expands manufacturing activities, and this effect is associated with sectoral particularities.
TIPO DE CAMBIO REAL Y CAMBIO ESTRUCTURAL: TEORÍA Y EVIDENCIA EMPÍRICA
RESUMEN
Este artículo analiza la influencia del tipo de cambio real en la estructura productiva. La contribución teórica es identificar los canales de transmisión de la influencia del tipo de cambio real en la estructura productiva, en especial en los modelos de crecimiento con restricción externa (la ley de Thirlwall). La contribución empírica es comprobar la asociación entre el tipo de cambio real y la composición estructural de las economías. Estimamos modelos econométricos para una gama de países usando datos agregados y sectoriales. Las estimaciones que usaron datos agregados sugieren que un tipo de cambio real devaluado favorece la industrialización; también han mostrado que un tipo de cambio real devaluado está asociado con una estructura productiva más diversificada y compleja. A su vez, las estimaciones utilizando datos sectoriales muestran que un tipo de cambio real competitivo incrementa las actividades manufactureras, y este efecto está asociado con las características sectoriales.
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