IMPACT OF MEXICO’S SOCIAL PROGRAMS ON POVERTY
Main Article Content
Abstract
Do the major social programs in Mexico decrease poverty? By how much? Are they sufficient to procure a country with no poverty? We approach these questions employing an extraction exercise on a linear general equilibrium model to estimate the poverty that would prevail in the case that Oportunidades, Procampo and Adulto Mayor were eliminated at once. The model is constructed with two key distinctive features: The marginal propensities to consume are derived from a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System allowing heterogeneous income elasticities among sectors, and labor income of non-wage workers, self-employed and employers are imputed to improve the measurement of labor contribution given the wide presence of informality in Mexico. Our estimates suggest the three programs contribute to a reduction of 9% in the head-count poverty measure. However, at this level, it would be necessary to scale the programs 8 times to achieve the World Bank’s 2030 poverty goals.
IMPACTO DE LOS PROGRAMAS SOCIALES DE MÉXICO EN LA POBREZA
RESUMEN
¿Los principales programas sociales en México disminuyen la pobreza? ¿En cuánto? ¿Son suficientes para obtener un país sin pobreza? Abordamos estas preguntas a través de un ejercicio de extracción en un modelo de equilibrio general lineal para estimar el nivel de pobreza que prevalecería si se eliminaran los programas Oportunidades, Procampo y Adulto Mayor en México. Para ello, construimos un modelo con dos características distintivas: las propensiones marginales a consumir son derivadas de un sistema cuadrático de demanda casi ideal, y se imputa el pago a los trabajadores sin pago, autoempleados y empleadores para obtener una mejor medición de la contribución del trabajo dada la alta presencia de informalidad en el país. Los tres programas considerados contribuyen a una reducción de 9% en la medida de pobreza. Sin embargo, en este nivel, sería necesario escalar los programas ocho veces para lograr las metas de pobreza para 2030 del Banco Mundial.
Article Details
Authors who publish in this journal agree to the following conditions:
a) The authors retain the copy rights (copyright) and give the journal the right of first publication, with the work also under the Creative Commons Attribution License that allows third parties to use what is published as long as they refer to the author or authors of the article. work and its publication in this journal.
b) The authors are free to make other contractual agreements for the non-exclusive distribution of the article they publish in this journal (such as including it in an institutional collection or publishing it in a book), provided that they clearly indicate the original publication of the work in this journal.