LA POLÍTICA CAMBIARIA DE MÉXICO Y CHINA EN UNA ECONOMÍA GLOBAL
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Abstract
El presente artículo analiza el impacto de los desalineamientos del tipo de cambio real de equilibrio (TCRE) sobre el comercio internacional y el crecimiento económico de México y China en el periodo 1994-2018. La hipótesis es que la política cambiaria de China fue más efectiva que la de México, dados los resultados que en el comercio y el crecimiento generó. Realizamos modelos econométricos para calcular los desalineamientos del TCRE y su relación con el comercio y el crecimiento económico. Los resultados indican que la política cambiaria de China ha sido más efectiva que la de México y que cualquier desalineamiento del TCRE deteriora el comercio y el crecimiento en ambas economías. Concluimos que México debe propiciar una subvaluación real del tipo de cambio en el corto plazo y generar las condiciones para lograr el equilibrio cambiario en el largo plazo mientras que China debe continuar con su misma política cambiaria.
THE EXCHANGE RATE POLICY OF MEXICO AND CHINA IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
ABSTRACT
This article analyzes the impacts that misalignments of the real equilibrium exchange rate (REER) have generated on international trade and economic growth in Mexico and China between 1994-2018. The hypothesis is that China’s exchange rate policy was more effective than Mexico’s, given the results achieved in trade and growth over the period of analysis. To prove the hypothesis, econometric models were used to calculate the misalignments of the REER and their relationship with trade and economic growth. Our results indicate that China’s exchange rate policy has been more effective than Mexico’s and that any misalignment of the REER impairs trade and growth in both economies. The article concludes that Mexico should focus on achieving a real undervaluation of its exchange rate in the short term and generate the conditions to achieve an equilibrium in the long term. As for China the recommendation is to continue with its exchange rate policy.Article Details
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