LA LEY DE OKUN EN MÉXICO, UNA RELACIÓN ASIMÉTRICA, 2005.01-2021.10
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Abstract
RESUMEN
La velocidad de cambio del desempleo en las contracciones y en las expansiones es muy diferente. En las primeras hay rápido aumento del desempleo y su reducción es lenta en las fases de crecimiento (easy to fire, hard to hire). Con un modelo Threshold (Bai y Perron, 2003) con brecha de desempleo probamos la presencia de asimetrías en el funcionamiento de la ley de Okun en México. Esta especificación detecta endógenamente los valores de umbral que define los regímenes. Encontramos que crecimientos del PIB superiores a –1.01% no reducen la brecha de desempleo, pero ésta aumenta cuando el PIB cae más que esa tasa.
OKUN’S LAW IN MEXICO, AN ASYMMETRIC RELATIONSHIP, 2005.01-2021.10
ABSTRACT
The change in unemployment during economic contractions and expansions is very different. In contractions there is a rapid increase in unemployment and its reduction is slow in the phases of growth: easy to fire, hard to hire. With a Threshold model (Bai and Perron, 2003) we test asymmetries in the Okun’s law in Mexico with unemployment gap. This technique endogenously detects the threshold values that define the systems regimes. We find that GDP above –1.01% does not decrease the unemployment gap, but this gap increases when GDP falls more than that rate.
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