Repression of Mexico’s Distrito Federal Government to Protest, 2012-2014. Perspectives of Threat in Federal Democracies

Abstract

Repression to protest in democracies has gotten different explanations in academia. Building from the threat approach, it is hypothesized that local governments are more prone to repress protests directed at the federal sphere, as they are unable to negotiate any solution to their demands. This article explores seven protests with arbitrary detentions –as an indicator of repression– in Distrito Federal –Mexico’s capital city–, between 2012 and 2014. Based on a probabilistic analysis with a unusual events’ binomial logistic regression, and a deterministic analysis with qualitative comparative analysis, it is found that demands to the federal sphere and violence are necessary conditions for repression, while a variety of claims and their radicality contribute to arbitrary detentions.