Entre el pueblo bueno y la élite corrupta. Narrativa populista y polarización afectiva en las redes sociales en México

Contenido principal del artículo

Rodolfo Sarsfield

Resumen

Según la definición ideacional del populismo, una narrativa es populista si se caracteriza por una cosmología maniquea que divide a la comunidad política entre un pueblo, concebido como una entidad homogéneamente virtuosa, y una élite, pensada como una entidad homogéneamente corrupta (Hawkins y Rovira Kaltwasser, 2019; Mudde, 2004). A partir de esta definición, el presidente de México, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) parece haber exhibido una narrativa populista. Partiendo de aquella conceptualización y centrándose en un estudio de caso, este trabajo indaga sobre si tal narrativa produce polarización y, especialmente, cuál de aquellos dos atributos ejerce un mayor efecto causal sobre las actitudes polarizadas entre los ciudadanos, proponiendo la hipótesis de que los mensajes invocando a una élite corrupta son más propensos a generar polarización afectiva que los mensajes aludiendo a un pueblo bueno. Para poner a prueba esta hipótesis, este artículo realiza análisis textual tanto de los posteos de AMLO en Facebook como de los comentarios de los seguidores a tales publicaciones. Los resultados muestran que los comentarios a los posteos de López Obrador son significativamente más polarizados cuando sus publicaciones exhiben un mensaje negativo sobre la “élite” que cuando muestran un mensaje con una mención positiva al “pueblo”. Las alusiones a una “élite corrupta” parecen desencadenar una gran polarización afectiva en las redes sociales.

Detalles del artículo

Cómo citar
Sarsfield, R. (2023). Entre el pueblo bueno y la élite corrupta. Narrativa populista y polarización afectiva en las redes sociales en México. Revista Mexicana De Opinión Pública, (35). https://doi.org/10.22201/fcpys.24484911e.2023.35.85518

Citas en Dimensions Service

Biografía del autor/a

Rodolfo Sarsfield, Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro

Doctor en Ciencia Política por la Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales (FLACSO, México). Becario de la Fundación Carolina y Profesor-Investigador de la Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro. Sus líneas de investigación son democracia y estado de derecho en América Latina, con énfasis en el estudio de las normas sociales, las instituciones informales, el comportamiento ilegal y la corrupción en Argentina y México.

Citas

Abramowitz, A. I. y Saunders. K. L. (2008). “Is Polarization a Myth?”. The Journal of Politics

(2): 542–55.

Aguilar, R. y Carlin, R. E. (2019). “Populist Voters: The Role of Authoritarianism y Ideology”.

En The ideational Approach to Populism. Concept, Theory, y Analysis, editado por K.

A. Hawkins, R. E. Carlin, L. Littvay, y C. Rovira Kaltwasser, 396-418. Londres: Routlegde. Akkerman, A., Mudde, C. y Zaslove, A. (2014). “How Populist Are the People? Measuring Populist

Attitudes in Voters”. Comparative Political Studies 47(9):1324-1353.

Andreadis, I., Hawkins, K. A., Llamazares, I. y Singer, M. M. (2019). “Populist Voting in Chile, Greece, Spain, and Bolivia”. En The Ideational Approach to Populism. Concept, Theory, and Analysis, editado por K. A. Hawkins, R. E. Carlin, L. Littvay y C. Rovira Kaltwasser, 238-278. Londres: Routlegde.

Betz, H. G. (2019). “Populist Mobilization Across Time and Space”. En The Ideational Approach to Populism. Concept, Theory, and Analysis, editado por K. A. Hawkins, R. E. Carlin, L. Littvay y C. Rovira Kaltwasser, 181-201. Londres: Routlegde.

Bogardus, E. S. (1947). “Measurement of Personal-Group Relations”. Sociometry 10(4): 306-11.

Booth, J. A. y Seligson, M. A. (2009). The Legitimacy Puzzle in Latin America: Political Support and Democracy in Eight Nations. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Bos, L., Van Der Brug, W. y De Vreese C. H. (2013). “An Experimental Test of the Impact of Style and Rhetoric on the Perception of Right-Wing Populist and Mainstream Party Leaders”. Acta Política 48(2): 192-208.

Bruhn, K. (2012). “To Hell with Your Corrupt Institutions!. AMLO and Populism in Mexico”. En

Populism in Europe and the Americas. Threat or corrective for democracy?, editado por

C. Mudde y C. Rovira Kaltwasser, 88-112. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Busby, E., Doyle, D., Hawkins, K. A. y Wiesehomeier N. (2019). “Activating Populist Attitudes:

the Role of Corruption.” En The Ideational Approach to Populism. Concept, Theory, and Analysis, editado por K. A. Hawkins, R. E. Carlin, L. Littvay y C. Rovira Kaltwasser, 374-395. Londres: Routlegde.

Cárdenas, E. (2011). “Polarización y Conflicto Social.” Revista de Economía Institucional 13(24): 253-270.

Carlin, R. E. y Singer, M. M. (2011). “Support for Polyarchy in the Americas”. Comparative Poli- tical Studies 44(11): 1500-1526. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414011407471.

Carlin, R. E., Hawkins, K A., Littvay, L, McCoy, J. y Rovira Kaltwasser, C. (2019). “Conclusions”.

En The Ideational Approach to Populism. Concept, Theory, and Analysis, editado por

K. A. Hawkins, R. E. Carlin, L. Littvay y C. Rovira Kaltwasser, 419-437. Londres: Routlegde. Castanho Silva, B., Andreadis, I., Anduiza, E., Blanusa, N., Morlet Corti, Y., Delfino, G., Rico, G., Ruth, S. P., Spryut, B., Steenbergen, M y Littvay, L. (2019). “Public Opinion Surveys: A New Scale.” En The Ideational Approach to Populism. Concept, Theory, and Analysis, editado

por K. A. Hawkins, R. E. Carlin, L. Littvay y C. Rovira Kaltwasser, 150-177. Londres: Routlegde. Cesario, J., Plaks, J.E., Hagiwara, N., Navarrete, C. D. y Tory Higgins, E. (2010). “The Ecology of Automaticity. How Situational Contingencies Shape Action Semantics and Social Be- havior”. Psychological Science 21(9): 1311-1317. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797610378685.

Chanley, V. (1994). “Commitment to Political Tolerance: Situational and Activity-Based Diffe- rences”. Political Behavior 16(3): 343-363. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01498955.

Collier, D. y Brady, H. E. (2010). Rethinking Social Inquiry. Diverse Tools, Shared Standard.

Plymouth: Rowman and Littlefield.

Collier, D., Hidalgo, F. D. y Maciuceanu A. O. (2006). “Essentially Contested Concepts: De- bates and Applications”. Journal of Political Ideologies 11(3): 211-246. https://doi. org/10.1080/13569310600923782.

Collier, D. y Levitsky, S. (1997). “Democracy with Adjectives. Conceptual Innovation in Com- parative Research”. World Politics 49(3): 430-451. https://doi.org/10.1353/wp.1997.0009.

Dahl, R. A. (1971). Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition. New Haven: Yale University Press. De la Torre, C. (2013). “In the Name of the People: Democratization, Popular Organizations, and Populism in Venezuela, Bolivia, and Ecuador”. European Review of Latin American

and Caribbean Studies 95: 27-48. http://doi.org/10.18352/erlacs.9229.

Diamond, L. (1994). “Toward Democratic Consolidation”. Journal of Democracy 5(3): 4-17. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.1994.0041.

Diamond, L. (1999). Developing democracy: Toward Consolidation. Baltimore: JHU Press. Druckman, J. N. y Levendusky, M. S. (2019). “What Do We Measure When We Measure Affective

Polarization?”. Public Opinion Quarterly 83(1): 114–22.

Enyedi, Z. (2016). “Populist Polarization and Party System Institutionalization”. Problems of Post-Communism 63(4): 210–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/10758216.2015.1113883.

Esteban, J. y Debraj, R. (1994). “On the Measurement of Polarization”. Econometrica 62(4): 819-851.

Esteban, J. y Debraj, R. (1999). “Conflict and Distribution”. Journal of Economic Theory 87(2): 379-415. https://doi.org/10.1006/jeth.1999.2549.

Esteban, J. y Schneider, G. (2008). “Polarization and Conflict: Theoretical and Empirical Is- sues”. Journal of Peace Research 45(2): 131-141. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343307087168. Fallon, R. H. (1997). “‘The Rule of Law’ As a Concept in Constitutional Discourse”. Columbia

Law Review 97(1): 1-56. https://doi.org/10.2307/1123446.

Flynn, D. J., Nyhan, B. y Reifler, J. (2017). “The Nature and Origins of Misperceptions: Unders- tanding False and Unsupported Beliefs about Politics”. Advances in Political Psychology 38(1): 127–150. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12394.

Gallie, W. B. (1956). “Essentially Contested Concepts”. Proceedings of the Aristotelian Socie- ty 56: 167-198.

García-Guadilla, M. P. y Mallen, A. (2019). “Polarization, Participatory Democracy, and Democratic Erosion in Venezuela’s Twenty-First Century Socialism”. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 681(1): 62-77. https://doi. org/10.1177/0002716218818782.

Gerring, J. (1997). “Ideology: A Definitional Analysis”. Political Research Quarterly 50(4): 957- 994. https://doi.org/10.2307/448995.

Gibson, J. (2013). “Measuring Political Tolerance and General Support for Pro-Civil Liberties Policies: Notes, Evidence, and Cautions”. Public Opinion Quarterly 77(Special Issue): 45-

https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfs073.

Goertz, G. y Mahoney, J. (2012). A Tale of Two Cultures. Qualitative and Quantitative Research in the Social Sciences. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Grbeša, M. y Šalaj, B. (2019). “Textual Analysis: An Inclusive Approach in Croatia.” En The Idea- tional Approach to Populism. Concept, Theory, and Analysis, editado por K. A. Hawkins,

R. E. Carlin, L. Littvay y C. Rovira Kaltwasser, 67-89. Londres: Routlegde.

Hameleers, M, Bos, L. y de Vreese, C. H. (2016). “‘They did it’ The effects of emotionalized blame attribution in populist communication”. Communication Research 44(6): 870-900. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093650216644026.

Hawkins, K. A. (2010). Venezuela’s Chavismo and Populism in Comparative Perspective. Cam- bridge: Cambridge University Press.

Hawkins, K. A. (2009). “Is Chavez Populist? Measuring Populist Discourse in Com- parative Perspective”. Comparative Political Studies 42(8): 1040-1067. https://doi. org/10.1177/0010414009331721.

Hawkins, K. A., Carlin, R. E., Littvay, L. y Rovira Kaltwasser, C. (eds.) (2019). The Ideational Approach to Populism. Concept, Theory, and Analysis. Londres: Routlegde.

Hawkins, K. A. y Castanho Silva, B. (2019). “Text Analysis: Big Data Approaches.” En The Idea- tional Approach to Populism. Concept, Theory, and Analysis, editado por K. A. Hawkins,

R. E. Carlin, L. Littvay y C. Rovira Kaltwasser, 27-48. Londres: Routlegde.

Hawkins, K. A., Gubler, J. R., Busby, E. C. y Carter, C. (2014). “Why Individuals Support Populist Candidates”. En Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association. Chicago: Midwest Political Science Association.

Hawkins, K. A., Riding, S. y Mudde, C. (2012). “Measuring Populist Attitudes”. IPSA Committee on Concepts and Methods Working Paper Series. Disponible en: www.concepts-method. org/. [Consultado el 10 de diciembre de 2018].

Hawkins, K. A. y Rovira Kaltwasser, C. (2019). “Introduction: The ideational approach”. En The Ideational Approach to Populism. Concept, Theory, and Analysis, editado por K. A. Haw- kins, R. E. Carlin, L. Littvay, y C. Rovira Kaltwasser, 1-24. Londres: Routlegde.

Hazama, Y. (2010). “Determinants of Political Tolerance: A Literature Review.” IDE Discussion Paper 288. Disponible en: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/241761140Determi- nantsofPoliticalToleranceALiteratureReview. [Consultado el 18 de diciembre de 2018].

Hiskey, J., Mason, M. y Rodríguez, M. (2013). “Democracy Progress Report. Political Tolerance in the Americas, 2006-2012”. Americas Barometer Insights 100: 1-10. Disponible en: ht- tps://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/insights2013.php. [Consultado el 08 de enero de 2019]. Hopkins, D. J. y King, G. (2010). “A Method of Automated Nonparametric Content Analysis for Social Science”. American Journal of Political Science 54(1): 229-247. https://doi.

org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00428.x.

Iyengar, S., Sood, G. y Lelkes, Y. (2012). “Affect, Not Ideology: A Social Identity Perspective on Polarization”. Public Opinion Quarterly 76(3): 405-31. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfs059. Iyengar, S., Lelkes, Y., Levendusky, M. S., Malhotra, N. y Westwood, S. J. (2019). “The Origins and Consequences of Affective Polarization in the United States”. Annual Review of

Political Science 22: 129-46.

Krämer, B. (2014). “Media Populism: A Conceptual Clarification and Some Theses on Its Effects”.

Communication Theory 24(1): 42-60. https://doi.org/10.1111/comt.12029.

Laver, M., Benoit, K. y Garry, J. (2003). “Extracting Policy Positions from Political Texts Using Words as Data”. American Political Science Review 97(2): 311-331. https://doi.org/10.1017/ S0003055403000698.

Leidig, E. (2019). Reconfiguring nationalism: Transnational entanglements of Hindutva and radical right ideology. Tesis Doctoral. Departamento de Sociología y Geografía Humana. Universidad de Oslo.

Levendusky, M. S. (2009). “The Microfoundations of Mass Polarization”. Political Analysis 17(2): 162-76. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpp003.

Linz, J. J. y Stepan, A. (1996). Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe. Baltimore: JHU Press.

López Obrador, A. M. (2018ª). “Buscaré la purificación de la vida pública.” Discurso de Asunción de la Presidencia. Disponible en: https://politico.mx/minuta-politica/minuta-politi- ca-gobierno-federal/amlo-buscar%C3%A9-la-purificaci%C3%B3n-de-la-vida-p%C3%- BAblica-de-m%C3%A9xico/. [Consultado el 08 de enero de 2019].

López Obrador, A. M. (2018b). “El Reforma, como emblema de la prensa conservadora, fifí, no es capaz de rectificar cuando difama”. Tuit, 22 de junio, 2018. Disponible en: https://twit- ter.com/lopezobrador_/status/1010141995543744512. [Consultado el 22 de junio de 2018]. Lucas, C., Nielsen, R. A., Roberts, M. E., Stewart, B. M., Storer, A. y Tingley, D. (2015). “Compu- ter-Assisted Text Analysis for Comparative Politics”. Political Analysis 23(2): 254-277. ht-

tps://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpu019.

March, L. (2019). “Textual Analysis: the UK Party System.” En The Ideational Approach to Po- pulism. Concept, Theory, and Analysis, editado por K. A. Hawkins, R. E. Carlin, L. Littvay y C. Rovira Kaltwasser, 49-66. Londres: Routlegde.

Mazzoleni, G. (2008). “Populism and the Media.” In Twenty-First Century Populism. The Spec- tre of Western European Democracy, editado por D. Albertazzi y D. McDonnell, 49-64. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.

Mazzoleni, G., Stewart, J. y Horsfield, B. (2003). The Media and Neo-Populism: A Contemporary Comparative Analysis. Westport: Greenwood Publishing Group.

McCoy, J. y Rahman, T. (2016). “Polarized Democracies in Comparative Perspective: Toward a Conceptual Framework”. Paper escrito para el taller Polarized Polities de la Georgia State University. Disponible en: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jennifer-Mccoy/ publication/336830321_Polarized_Democracies_in_Comparative_Perspective_Towar- d_a_Conceptual_Framework/links/5db46423299bf111d4d03b97/Polarized-Democra- cies-in-Comparative-Perspective-Toward-a-Conceptual-Framework.pdf.

McCoy, J. y Somer, M. (2019). “Toward a Theory of Pernicious Polarization and How It Harms Democracies: Comparative Evidence and Possible Remedies”. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 681(1): 234-271. https://doi. org/10.1177/0002716218818782.

Merolla, J. L. y Zechmeister, E. J. (2009). Democracy at Risk: How Terrorist Threats Affect the

Public. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Møller, J. y Skaaning, S. E. (2012). “Systematizing Thin and Thick Conceptions of the Rule of Law”. The Justice System Journal 33(2): 136-153. https://doi.org/10.1080/009826 1X.2012.10768008.

Møller, J. y Skaaning S. E. (2014). The Rule of Law. Definitions, Measures, Patterns and Causes.

Londres: Palgrave Macmillan.

Mudde, C. (2004). “The Populist Zeitgeist”. Government and Opposition 39(3): 541-563. https:// doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-7053.2004.00135.x.

Mudde, C. y Rovira Kaltwasser, C. (2012). “Populism and (Liberal) Democracy: A Framework for Analysis”. En Populism in Europe and the Americas. Threat or Corrective for Democracy, editado por C. Mudde y C. Rovira Kaltwasser, 1-16. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Munck, G. L. y Verkuilen, J. (2002). “Conceptualizing and Measuring Democracy. Eva- luating Alternative Indices”. Comparative Political Studies 35(1): 5-34. https://doi.

org/10.1177/001041400203500101.

Priester, K. (2012). “Wesensmerkmale des Populismus”. Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte 62(5- 6): 3-9.

Quinn, K. M., Monroe, B. L., Colaresi, M., Crespin, M. H. y Radev, D. R. (2010). “How to Analyze Political Attention with Minimal Assumptions and Costs”. American Journal of Political Science 54(1): 209-228. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00427.x.

Roberts, K. M. (2022). “Populism and Polarization En Comparative Perspective: Constitutive, Spatial and Institutional Dimensions”. Government and Opposition 57(4): 680-702. ht- tps://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2021.14.

Roberts, K., Sarsfield, R. y Moncagatta, P. (2023). “The New Polarization in Latin America”. American Political Science Association Annual Conference, Los Ángeles, 31 de agosto-04 de Setiembre.

Rohla, R., Johnston, R., Jones, K. y Manley, D. (2018). “Spatial Scale and the Geographical Polarization of the American Electorate”. Political Geography 65: 117-22. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2018.05.010.

Rooduijn, M. (2014). “The Nucleus of Populism: In Search of the Lowest Common Denomi- nator”. Government and Opposition 49(4): 573-599. https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2013.30.

Salinas, E. y Booth, J. A. (2011). “Micro-Social and Contextual Sources of Democratic Atti- tudes in Latin America”. Journal of Politics in Latin America 3(1): 29-64. https://doi. org/10.1177/1866802X1100300102.

Salmela, M. y von Scheve, C. (2017). “Emotional Roots of Right-Wing Political Populism”. Social Science Information 56(4): 567-595. https://doi.org/10.1177/0539018417734419.

Sarsfield, R. (2019). “La psicología política del populismo”. Oraculus. 05 de Noviembre.

Sarsfield, R. (2023). “Populist Rhetoric and Polarization in Mexico”. En The Ideational Approach to Populism: Consequences and Mitigation, editado por N. Wiesehomeier, E. T. Hawkins,

K. A. Hawkins, A. Chryssogelos y L. Littvay, 1-35. Nueva York: Routledge. [En prensa]. Seligson, M. A. (2000). “Toward a Model of Democratic Stability: Political Culture in Central

America”. Estudios Interdisciplinarios de América Latina y el Caribe 11(2): 5-29.

Sen, A. (2006). Identity and Violence. Nueva York: W. W. Norton and Company.

Spruyt, B., Keppens, G. y Van Droogenbroeck, F. (2016). “Who Supports Populism and What Attracts People to It?”. Political Research Quarterly 69(2): 335-346. https://doi. org/10.1177/1065912916639138.

Stanley, B. (2008). “The Thin Ideology of Populism”. Journal of Political Ideologies 13(1): 95- 110. https://doi.org/10.1080/13569310701822289.

Taber, C. S. y Lodge, M. (2006). “Motivated Skepticism in the Evaluation of Political Beliefs”. American Journal of Political Science 50(3): 755-769. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540- 5907.2006.00214.x.

Taggart, P. (2000). Populism. Buckingham: Open University Press.

Tamanaha, B. Z. (2007). “A Concise Guide to the Rule of Law”. Serie St. John’s University School of Law Legal Studies Research Paper Núm. 07-0082. Disponible en http://ssrn. com/abstract=1012051. [Consultado el 10 de marzo de 2012].

Taş, H. (2020). “The chronopolitics of national populism”. Identities, 1-19. doi:10.1080/10702 89X.2020.1735160

Urbinati, N. (2019). Me the people: How populism transforms democracy. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

Van Hauwaert, S. M., Schimpf, C. H. y Azevedo, F. (2019). “Public Opinion Surveys: Evaluating Existing Measures.” En The Ideational Approach to Populism. Concept, Theory, and Analysis, editado por K. A. Hawkins, R. E. Carlin, L. Littvay y C. Rovira Kaltwasser, 128-149. Londres: Routlegde.

Waldron, J. (2002). “Is the Rule of Law an Essentially Contested Concept (in Florida)?”. Law and Philosophy 21(2): 137-164. https://doi.org/ 10.1023/A:1014513930336.

Weyland, K. (2001). “Clarifying a Contested Concept: Populism in the Study of America Latina Politics”. Comparative Politics 34(1): 1-22. https://doi.org/10.2307/422412.