UNCERTAINTY, “THE BLACK SWAN” AND CRISES

Abstract

This essay examines a frequently mentioned term in economics, which is essential as it is used in many uncertainty models. A study of the relationship between the black swan event and uncertainty within the capitalist system was carried out under the vision of the Lebanese author Nassim Taleb from his 2007 book “The Black Swan. The impact of the highly improbable”. He exposes his ideas and arguments about the Black Swan phenomenon in it. The name comes from an allegory that has been used to refer to improbable events that are extremely rare, unpredictable in perspective, and predictable in retrospect. However, those bring significant economic, social, and political impact. Taleb describes the Black Swan phenomenon from certain concepts, such as the opacity triplet, the induction problem, the confirmation error, the narrative fallacy, and the problem of silent tests.