Federal Expenditures on Security vs. Homicides: the Costs of War Against Organized Crime in Mexico: 2006-2012

Abstract

This article intends to evaluate the state security strategy implemented from 2006 to 2012 by considering two core variables: Expenditure in Security and total number of homicides. The main concern arises from the fact that the higher the expenses in security the higher the number of homicides at national level. We correlate these two variables separately, one for president Vicente Fox and another for Felipe Calderón finding relevant differences. We divide the homicides data base in three periods, during the 90´s; from 2000 to 2005 and from 2006 to 2012 in order to compare average homicides per year, annual rate of growth and the top ten for each period. Finally we take the top ten entities from 2006-2012 and we add two more variables: blackmailing and kidnaping. Then we correlate them with unemployment drawing conclusions that should be taken care of.