Campaigns and Media in Developing Democracies. Effects of the First Presidential Debate in the 2015 Argentine Election

Abstract

Studies on the determinants of voting are extensive. Previous investigations argue that campaigns in developed countries serve to inform citizens and set the agenda, but have no consequences on the decision of the vote. In the case of developing democracies, the literature argues that, due to media bias and low identification with political parties, the exposure of voters to electoral campaigns can have strong effects on their decision. This article argues in this direction and shows the effects of the televised debate that occurred during the presidential campaign of 2015 in Argentina, in the voting intentions.The presidential election was resolved after a competitive second round and in a scenario of strong polarization. The effects of the television debate were measured, at first, based on a special technique of continuous longitudinal measurement or tracking of intention to vote from 26 778 surveys, made to different people from October 27 to November 22 of 2015. This method allowed to project the voting intentions in time and analyze the effects of various political events. In a second moment, based on a nonparametric technique of prior data processing, a model was estimated that allowed robust causal inferences to verify the effect of the presidential debate, both immediately after the event and also at the close of the presidential campaign.  The main finding is that, contrary to the hypothesis of minimal effects, under certain conditions, a televised presidential debate has great consequences on the determination of the vote and can reverse the tendency of an election. The results are relevant to understanding the influence of the media on democratic deliberation.