Estimated Voting Intention at the Municipal Level: MRP Model in the State of Mexico's 2023 Elections
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Abstract
This article studies the 2023 gubernatorial campaign in State of Mexico, focusing on the importance of the local level in elections. Despite traditional electoral polls providing only state-level information, this study offers detailed estimates of voting intentions by municipality through an MRP model. Using a multilevel model with post-stratification (MRP), estimates of voting intentions were generated for each candidate in the 125 municipalities of the State of Mexico. The results show heterogeneous competition, reflecting significant changes in electoral dynamics, particularly in regions historically dominated by one political party. Additionally, the model's accuracy was evaluated compared to actual election results, demonstrating a high correlation. The relevance of allowing the disclosure of surveys in the days leading up to the election to enhance the quality of information available to voters and candidates is discussed.
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References
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Basada en una obra en http://revistas.unam.mx/index.php/rmop.